Pair #9997

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 32288

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 12743

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.3900
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning 'a' major in 2026 could refer to any of the four majors, not necessarily the Open Championship, so it doesn't guarantee making the cut at that specific event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100 + ~$0.0172 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -69.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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