Pair #9995

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 614976

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9890
Last: 0.0120

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Rules

If Patrick Cantlay wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3988

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it guarantees the 'wins a major in 2026' market resolves YES. The reverse doesn't hold since Cantlay could win a different major instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -63.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090 + ~$0.0021 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -67.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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