Pair #9992

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4675

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JRAH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8890

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A top-10 finish doesn't require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-10 finish (collapse possible).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0173 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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