Pair #9990

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4675

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 774059

YES ask: 0.0390
NO ask: 0.9620
Last: 0.0390

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship is unrelated to a Round 3 lead at a different tournament (Genesis Scottish Open).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0390 + ~$0.0026 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -81.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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