Pair #9989

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 35705

YES ask: 0.0280
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4675

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; leading Round 1 of one event has no bearing on leading Round 3 of another.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 28.66% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9860 + ~$0.0023 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +24.43% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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