Pair #9987

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH

Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4675

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: LIV Golf participation in Q1 2027 is unrelated to leading after Round 3 of a 2026 tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 23.66% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8500 + ~$0.0101 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: +19.18% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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