Pair #9986

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH

Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JRAH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8008

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Competing in a LIV tournament in Q1 2027 has no logical connection to a top-20 finish at a separate 2026 PGA-affiliated event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -15.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0229 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -19.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue