Pair #9984

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH

Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JRAH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8890

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Competing in LIV Golf Q1 2027 and a top-10 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open are unrelated events with no logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -32.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0267 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -36.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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