Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH
Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH
Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 35705
YES ask: 0.0280
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0290
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:24Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: Competing in a LIV event in Q1 2027 and leading Round 1 of the 2026 Open Championship are unrelated with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
19.87%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.8680
+ ~$0.0113 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
+15.39%
PROFITABLE