Pair #9979

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4675

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 at a non-major event has no logical connection to winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 3.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -0.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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