Pair #9978

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JRAH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8008

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A top-20 finish at a non-major event has no logical connection to winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -37.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0155 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -42.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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