Pair #9974

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 774059

YES ask: 0.0390
NO ask: 0.9620
Last: 0.0390

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it guarantees winning 'a' major in 2026. The reverse doesn't hold since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -80.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0120 + ~$0.0059 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -84.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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