Pair #9973

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 35705

YES ask: 0.0280
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't require leading Round 1 of The Open specifically, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $0.9980 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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