Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH
Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 276
YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jon Rahm competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 33065
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:07Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: Winning a 2026 major has no logical bearing on whether Rahm competes in a LIV event in Q1 2027.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
15.58%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.8900
+ ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity:
258
Hurdle yield:
4.45%
Excess yield:
+11.13%
PROFITABLE