Pair #997

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2285

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar Championship (a non-major) does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply a top 5 at Valspar. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.88% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -2.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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