Pair #9968

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-WKIM

Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 450

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-WKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8717

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A top-10 finish does not require leading after Round 3, nor does leading after Round 3 guarantee a top-10 finish (could collapse).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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