Pair #9965

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SWOO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2812

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-WKIM

Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 450

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; no logical dependency between winning a major and leading Round 3 at the Scottish Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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