Pair #9963

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SWOO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2812

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Si Woo Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-WKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4205

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These involve different tournaments; neither outcome necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -49.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -53.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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