Pair #9962

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SWOO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2812

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-WKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8717

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:04:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require any specific finish at the Scottish Open (a different, non-major event), and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -48.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0166 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -52.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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