Pair #9958

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RFOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1169

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 12164

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:43Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary link between winning any major and a top-10 finish at The Open specifically.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0069 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -25.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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