Pair #9957

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28322

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-XSCH

The Open Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1411

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:43Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could happen at a different tournament, and a top-5 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0110 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -27.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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