Pair #9955

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28322

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 28862

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9830
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:43Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major doesn't require leading Round 1 of The Open, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 0.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9930 + ~$0.0036 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -3.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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