Pair #9950

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 80594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CAME

Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13596

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:43Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't require leading Round 1 of The Open specifically, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 0.57% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9950 + ~$0.0024 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -3.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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