Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JSPA
Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2285
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If J.J. Spaun finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA
Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647
YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030
View on Kalshi
Rules
If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar has no logical relationship to winning the Masters. These are completely independent events.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0030
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A