Pair #995

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2285

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar has no logical relationship to winning the Masters. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0030
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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