Pair #9948

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 80594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1827

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could be a different tournament, and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -33.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0130 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -37.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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