Pair #9947

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1208319

YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9740
Last: 0.0270

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Rules

If Collin Morikawa wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22073

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is winning a major, so it implies the major-win market; reverse fails as another major could be won instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -81.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0140 + ~$0.0045 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -85.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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