Pair #9946

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22073

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CMOR

Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 24882

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0140

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament, and winning a major could be at a different event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 0.57% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9950 + ~$0.0024 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -3.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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