Pair #9945

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22073

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9376

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Same reasoning - major win could occur at a different tournament, and top-20 finish doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -47.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0173 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -52.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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