Pair #9943

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 5790

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA-26

Will Joao Fonseca win a major in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22513

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the US Open Men's Singles is winning a major; reverse fails as other majors could be won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0034 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -22.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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