Pair #9942

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Madison Keys wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MKEY

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1754

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Madison Keys wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open win is a Grand Slam win; reverse fails as other majors possible.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 59
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -40.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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