Pair #9940

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-ANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 1319

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-AANI

Will Amanda Anisimova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Amanda Anisimova
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3157

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Amanda Anisimova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open title is a Grand Slam title; reverse not necessarily true.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -58.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0141 est. fees
Days to maturity: 59
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -63.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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