Pair #9939

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-OSA

Will Naomi Osaka win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 1708

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-NOSA

Will Naomi Osaka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Naomi Osaka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3841

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naomi Osaka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open win is a Grand Slam win; reverse fails as other majors could be won instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0085 est. fees
Days to maturity: 59
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -15.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue