Pair #9938

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-GAU

Will Coco Gauff win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 6009

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

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Rules

If Coco Gauff wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-CGAU

Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6035

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Coco Gauff wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the US Open is winning a Grand Slam, so it implies winning a Grand Slam in 2026. Reverse not true since she could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -30.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0108 est. fees
Days to maturity: 59
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -34.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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