Pair #9937

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-SWI

Will Iga Swiatek win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 476

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.0900

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Rules

If Iga Swiatek wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ISWI

Will Iga Swiatek win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Iga Swiatek
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7227

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Iga Swiatek wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open is a Grand Slam tournament; winning it implies the broader Grand Slam market resolves Yes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 59
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -40.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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