Pair #9936

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 3087

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3836

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the US Open Women's Singles necessarily satisfies the Grand Slam condition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -62.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0128 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -66.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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