Pair #9935

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTA-26USO-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open Women's Singles?

Series: KXWTA
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-09-13T05:00:00Z
Volume: 2569

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 14445

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open Women's Singles is a Grand Slam; winning it implies winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0259 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -23.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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