Pair #9934

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-BUB

Will Alexander Bublik win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 6339

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Bublik wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-ABUB

Will Alexander Bublik win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1364

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Bublik wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open is one of the four majors listed in the Grand Slam rules.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -17.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -21.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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