Pair #9932

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-FRI

Will Taylor Fritz win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 16677

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Taylor Fritz wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-TFRI

Will Taylor Fritz win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3875

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Taylor Fritz wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the US Open necessarily counts as winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0058 est. fees
Days to maturity: 61
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -39.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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