Pair #9931

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-DE

Will Alex de Minaur win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 1642

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex de Minaur wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AMIN

Will Alex de Minaur win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3377

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex de Minaur wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open is a Grand Slam event; winning it satisfies the Grand Slam condition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -58.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0089 est. fees
Days to maturity: 61
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -62.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue