Pair #9930

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-AUG

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 8828

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Felix Auger-Aliassime wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FAUG

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3311

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Felix Auger-Aliassime wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open win implies major win; reverse not necessarily true.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -83.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0164 est. fees
Days to maturity: 61
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -87.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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