Pair #993

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28221

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical relationship to winning a major in 2026. These are entirely independent.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -6.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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