Pair #9929

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-MUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 1233

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8456

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lorenzo Musetti wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:03:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: US Open is one of the four majors; winning it necessitates the Grand Slam market resolving Yes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -31.41% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -35.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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