Pair #9923

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-NDJO

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Novak Djokovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 397

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Novak Djokovic is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-NDJO

Will Novak Djokovic win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Novak Djokovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 69526

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Novak Djokovic wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:02:52Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Ranking #1 doesn't require winning a major, and winning a major doesn't guarantee being #1 ranked at year-end.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0081 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -25.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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