Pair #9922

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 5050

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13442

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:02:52Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The US Open is one of the four majors defined in the Grand Slam market; winning it necessarily satisfies the Grand Slam win condition. The reverse is not true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -39.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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