Pair #9921

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 5050

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-DMED

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 791

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Daniil Medvedev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:02:52Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked at year-end doesn't require winning the US Open, and winning the US Open doesn't guarantee being #1 ranked at year-end.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -6.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -10.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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