Pair #991

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28221

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:30Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of the Valspar has no logical bearing on winning the Masters. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9930
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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