Pair #9905

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 34919

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5700

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPFINALSQUAL-26NIT-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals?

Series: KXATPFINALSQUAL
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-11-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1683

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:02:25Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Nitto Finals qualification depends on cumulative ranking points across the season and other players' results, not logically guaranteed by winning a single major; also qualifying doesn't require having won the US Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0185 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -92.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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