Pair #9900

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 34919

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5700

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 67661

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:01:59Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The US Open is one of the four tennis majors, so winning it necessarily means winning a Grand Slam in 2026.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -83.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3200 + ~$0.0240 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -87.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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