Pair #9899

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPFINALSQUAL-26NIT-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals?

Series: KXATPFINALSQUAL
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-11-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1683

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9600

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 67661

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:01:59Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam strongly correlates with high ranking points but does not logically guarantee qualification for the Nitto Finals, which depends on cumulative points relative to other players.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 20.51% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9300 + ~$0.0095 est. fees
Days to maturity: 122
Hurdle yield: 4.41%
Excess yield: +16.10% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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