Pair #9894

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26USO-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 34919

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.5700

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 5240

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:01:59Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked at year end does not require winning the US Open, nor does winning the US Open guarantee being #1 at year end.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0229 est. fees
Days to maturity: 60
Hurdle yield: 4.32%
Excess yield: -89.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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